Hello! Below is the Grebnesor Analysis Valorant Champions Tour Playoff model. The model simulates 100k possible results for the end of the season and calculates the chance of each team making the playoffs. It also includes the average number of matches won and lost across the entire season. The simulations are handled via code I wrote, but I manually update the numbers. That’s why only some days over the season have options for each region. With that said, you can look back at the course of the season and see how probabilities have changed!
The Valorant Champions Tour consists of three leagues, and the top six teams make it to playoffs in each league. From there, teams attempt to qualify for Tokyo. This model aims to predict which teams of the league will make the final playoffs and, in the future, will be preserved to show how the team’s probabilities progressed. A huge inspiration comes from fivethirtyeight.com, and their sports models.
There were a number of questions I’ve received asking about precisely how the model works and why certain things appear the way they do. To help with this, I made a video explaining roughly how the model works. I also answer some of the most frequently asked questions. You can watch that video below, and if you’re looking for more video content, then subscribe to my youtube channel!
*Note: Due to a bug in the model, the model specifically underrated NRG Esports in the early weeks of the season, and MIBR was likely overrated. The model thought MIBR had an extra game in place of NRG, and that led to several calculations being off. At the time, it wasn’t clear the issue.